BlockBeats 消息，12 月 11 日，荷兰国际银行表示，市场预期美联储 2026 年将再降息 50 个基点。鉴于当前经济仍在增长、失业率处于低位、股市接近历史高点、通胀率更接近 3% 而非美联储的 2% 目标，似乎并无太多需要美联储进一步放宽政策的理由。
尽管如此，荷兰国际银行怀疑未来几个月通胀背景将变得更有利于降息，从而为鸽派提供进一步行动的理由。尽管关税威胁依然存在，但其影响来得比担心的更慢、力度也更弱。这为能源价格下降、住房租金增速放缓以及薪资增长减弱等争取了更多时间来缓解通胀，并且荷兰国际银行相信，这将推动通胀比美联储预期更快地接近 2%。
且由于美联储双重使命中的就业部分看起来更令人担忧（需注意鲍威尔曾表示美联储认为近几个月的就业增长数据被高估了 6 万人），荷兰国际银行预计美联储将在 2026 年降息两次，预测分别在 3 月和 6 月各降息 25 个基点。(金十)
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