【券商聚焦】美银重申博通(AVGO)“买入”评级 指股价下跌或许归因于一些不必要的担忧

金吾财讯
Dec 15, 2025

金吾财讯 | 美银证券发研报指,博通(AVGO)公布业绩后股价在盘后交易中下跌,或许归因于一些不必要的担忧:1)积压订单与最乐观预期的差距:730亿美元(且持续增长)的AI积压订单,相对于市场共识的690亿美元(未来六季),以及一些可能超过800亿美元的最乐观预期。博通的积压订单/订单能见度持续建立,管理层评论暗示在2026及2027财年实现500亿及1,000亿美元AI销售额是可能的,与交流前的最乐观预估相符;2)OpenAI专案启动日期:该行仍预期其对2027财年的贡献大于2026财年,从某种角度看这是好事,因它降低了2026财年AI展望的风险。在该行看来,博通新增的第五个客户可能是苹果公司(AAPL),考虑到苹果是其传统客户,且签有长期大规模部署协议;3)产品组合导致的毛利率压力:这是合理的担忧,该行将博通2026及2027财年毛利率预估下调至73%及71%(先前为75.4%及73.6%),但该行相信博通营运支出可得到控制,使息税前利润率保持相对稳定;以及4)相对于英伟达(NVDA)的溢价估值:相对于辉达的24倍,博通2026财年预测市盈率为33倍,差距为历来最大,此差距倾向于在日历年第一季季节性收敛。该机构重申博通为首选股,以及“买入”评级,将2026及2027财年每股盈利预测各上调8%,分别至10.33美元及14.4美元,目标价由460美元调升至500美元,基于不变的33倍2027财年预测市盈率。

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