观点:7*24H 纳斯达克合约的价格受杠杆和清算机制驱动,并非真正的价格发现

BitPush
Dec 15

比推消息, Markos Mom 在 X 平台发文表示,7*24H 的纳斯达克(Nasdaq)合约并非一个真正的指数,其价格几乎完全由仓位、杠杆、资金费率和清算机制驱动,而不是底层公司的新信息、期权或地缘政治事件。当真正的市场关闭时,没有 ETF 套利、期权市场或现金股票流。它只是一个价格、一个清算引擎和交易者对开盘的预测。他指出,这不再是价格发现,而是一种压力测试。这也是在平静的周末会出现突然 4%的暴跌,随后几乎立即回升至先前区间的原因。这种突然的波动并不是均值回归,而是因为有一个公开的倒计时,直到参考市场重新开启,市场被迫重新锚定。这种区别解释了为什么该产品有时会突然出现剧烈的错位。低波动鼓励杠杆,杠杆聚集止损,止损助推清算,清算造成巨大的临时波动。该产品的周末波动范围不受逻辑或公允价值限制,而是受资产负债表和保证金限制。对于大多数人来说,这是一个带有未来确定趋同事件和极不确定路径的抛硬币式赌博。

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