《大行》汇研升五矿资源(01208.HK)目标价至9.1元 铜基本面改善但短期上行空间有限

阿斯达克财经
Dec 15

汇研发表报告指,五矿资源(01208.HK) 第四季增长动能强劲,铜、锌产量稳定且金属价格走强,预计公司2026年产量将温和增长,Las Bambas矿区产量稳定,Kinsevere矿区的产量提升取决于电力供应;又因铜基本面改善但短期上行空间有限,维持“持有”评级;并采用12倍前瞻市盈率(原先为9倍),目标价从为3.2港元上调至9.1港元,隐含约11.9%的上行空间。
汇研预计,五矿资源的Las Bambas矿区在本季运作畅顺,预计今年第四季铜产量将超过10万吨,且所有现场库存将于年底前售出。Kinsevere矿区的扩建按计划进行顺利,而随着新承包商运作趋稳,Khoemacau矿区的产量预计将按季增加。Dugald River矿区和Rosebery矿区的表现则在本季保持稳定,因大宗商品市场整体环境仍乐观,铜精矿供应紧张,锌价受季节性因素影响走高。

汇研又预计,五矿资源今年将实现全年约50万吨铜及约23万吨锌的产量指引,预计其2026年产量将温和增长。但鉴于产量增长有限,盈利因铜价变动的敏感度仍相当高,预计铜价每变动1%,将导致2026年盈利变动约1.7%。(hc/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-12-12 16:25。)

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