睿盛银行:预期美联储明年降息3次,维持对股票长期升势的看法

格隆汇
Dec 15

12月15日,睿盛银行预期,美联储明年会继续温和减息,在关税问题抑制经济增长下,虽然有低利率和AI投资抵销相关影响,但预期2026年美国经济增长或略较2025年放缓。另一方面,美联储新主席是否有亲特朗普的候选人担任,仍有待观察,现时预计美国明年会降息3次。

该行维持对股票长期升势的看法,指企业盈利和美国低利率环境会继续支撑股票市场。明年前景看来更具挑战性,主要因为估值已变得很高及全球经济前景疲弱。企业能否继续以令人信服的盈利增速满足市场的高预期,将成为关键因素。有机会令市况波动性变得更大。

该行提到,在在不稳定时期,美元仍是热门避险资产。如果美元出现意外的突然升值,部分沽美元进的合约更有机会需要平仓,将会产生反效果,即推高美元。

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