瑞银:2026大宗商品展望

信息量有点大
Dec 16, 2025

核心结论:2026 年大宗商品市场将呈现 “结构性牛市” 特征,工业金属中铜、铝、锂将成为领涨主线,受益于供给约束与能源转型、AI / 国防等主题需求;黄金仍具配置价值,但工业金属上涨弹性更优;铁矿石、镍等品种因供需宽松表现承压。全球需求端虽受发达市场传统行业疲软、中国地产下行拖累,但补库周期与结构性增长动力将推动商品价格分化,建议聚焦供给受限 + 高景气需求赛道的品种及对应矿业股。一、市场整体...

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