多重因素共振 铜价结构性牛市可期

期货日报
Dec 19

2025年四季度以来,全球铜价持续刷新历史高位。12月上旬,沪铜主力合约突破9.45万元/吨,LME铜价触及1.19万美元/吨,年内累计涨幅均超过30%。笔者认为,本轮铜价上涨并非由单一供需矛盾驱动,而是供应瓶颈、金融属性释放与政策扰动等多重因素共振的结果。尽管国际铜研究组织数据显示,2025年全球精炼铜市场预计小幅过剩17.8万吨,但区域性库存失衡叠加长期结构性缺口预期,共同推动铜价脱离即期...

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