凯投宏观:若美国AI泡沫破裂,亚洲新兴市场恐难幸免

金吾财讯
Dec 19, 2025

金吾财讯 | 凯投宏观(Capital Economics)在一份报告中称,新兴市场股票的AI泡沫尚未破裂,且明年可能进一步膨胀。市场经济学家Elias Hilmer称:“虽然今年新兴市场股票的估值普遍上涨,但仍普遍低于美国。“他补充称,新兴市场与美国AI股票之间的巨大估值差距预计明年不会大幅收窄。然而,如果该AI泡沫像凯投宏观(CE)预测的那样在2027年破裂,较低的新兴市场估值不太可能提供太多缓冲。在这种情况下,台湾和韩国将面临大幅回调。他称,如果在该泡沫破裂后全球市场出现持续回调,不断上升的风险溢价将对亚洲以科技股为主的新兴市场构成压力。

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