经济学家:疲软日元扫清日本央行12月加息道路,若颓势难改将再次加息

Blockbeats
Dec 17, 2025

BlockBeats 消息,12 月 17 日,根据经济学家 Alicia Garcia Herrero 的分析,日元持续疲软正成为日本央行和日本政府本月达成一致、支持期待已久的加息的决定性因素。尽管对美国关税和更广泛的地缘政治风险感到担忧,但事实证明,日本经济比预期更具弹性。短期、中期和长期通胀预期仍高于日本央行 2% 的目标,这加强了进一步政策正常化的理由。食品价格推高了核心通胀率,日元兑美元汇率在 155 附近持续走弱,可能会加剧输入性通胀压力。

Alicia Garcia Herrero 预计日本央行将在 12 月 19 日的会议上将政策利率上调 25 个基点至 0.75%。展望未来,如果日元在加息后未能企稳,并继续拖累实际收入,日本政府可能也会接受进一步收紧政策,这可能为明年初再次加息 25 个基点打开大门。(金十)

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