金吾财讯 | 浦银国际研报指，根据国家统计局数据，2025年11月社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，增速有所放缓；1-11月实物商品网上零售额同比增长5.7%，占社零总额比重为25.9%。该机构预计家电品类高基数影响或将在明年延续。此外，手机等数码品类（2025年1月开始国补）也将在明年面临高基数。带电品类作为京东(09618)优势品类，此前从国补中受益较大，该机构预计短期将面临相对较高的基数，预计带电品类4Q25E收入同比下降15%；日百品类预计仍将保持双位数增长；预计公司全年收入同比增长12.5%。该机构调整公司FY25E/FY26E收入预测至人民币13,038亿/13,746亿元，调整目标价至131港元/34美元，对应FY26E/FY27E年10.0x/7.1x P/E。考虑到公司在核心品类仍然保持优势地位，以及预期未来外卖业务亏损收窄将推动公司整体利润改善，维持“买入”评级。
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