Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】华泰证券：淡季航空票价有所波动，等待26春运表现

金吾财讯
Dec 17, 2025

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，11月航司客座率同比提升幅度仍较为明显，不过淡季效应显现，票价同比涨幅逐步回落。三大航+春秋+吉祥ASK/RPK分别同增7.1%/10.6%，客座率同增2.7pct至85.9%，同时根据航班管家数据，第45周-48周（11/3- 11/30）国内线含油票价同增3.4%，但在12月前两周转为同比下降1.3%。往后展望，淡季高频数据或难以形成催化，短期波动市场关注度较低，更为关注26年春运数据表现；中长期行业供给增速或将保持低位，景气改善有望传导至票价提升，同时油价和美元兑人民币汇率有望降低成本压力，共同改善航司盈利。该机构指，11月中下旬开始，或由于淡季、中日航班临时调整、展会等催化因素减弱，行业票价同比涨幅回落。根据航班管家数据，第49周-50周（12/1-12/14）国内线含油票价同降1.3%。不过市场短期对于淡季票价关注度不高，26年春运数据或为之后关注重点。往后展望，受制于上游产能，飞机引进增速较低，且飞机日利用率已基本恢复，该机构预测26E供给增速将由25E的6.0%进一步放缓至4.4%；同时需求稳步随经济增长，中性预测26E同增5.3%，行业有望迎来供需改善。并且由于客座率已较高，景气向上有望“从量向价”传导，体现为票价弹性，该机构认为将催化航司盈利释放。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10