板块逻辑：化工处于无序震荡之中，周三受到委内瑞拉事件的影响沥青和甲醇表现强势。委内瑞拉是我国沥青生产的主要原料，委内瑞拉原油出口受阻将影响未来我国沥青的原料供给；当前稀释沥青库存高企，稀释沥青价格仍在走弱，沥青本身也进入消费淡季，沥青处于弱预期强现实格局，交易难度较大。央视新闻报道，委内瑞拉12月15日中断了与特立尼达多巴哥的所有天然气合同，特国的甲醇生产可能因此将受到影响；叠加伊朗更多甲醇装置停车，我国华东港口库存下滑，甲醇进入了偏强震荡格局。
展望：能源化工延续弱势震荡，空单阶段性止盈为主。
风险提示：中美之间开始互相大幅加征关税，OPEC+改变产量政策。
（文章来源：中信期货）
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