黑色观察|南华期货焦煤焦炭2026年度展望—终端需求弹性缺失下的价格僵局

南华研究
Dec 23, 2025

01观点概要【核心观点】展望2026年,国内煤焦市场将继续在“能源保供稳价”的基础上,通过“环保限产”、“查超产”、“控能耗”等行政手段约束过量供应、稳定价格预期,并为焦煤价格提供相对稳固的底部支撑,预计全年国内焦煤产量将同比小幅收紧(-0.5%)。此外,焦煤进口规模有望进一步扩张,预计全年净进口量较今年增加(+3.3%)。在总量扩张的同时,焦煤进口结构也将面临调整,具体表现为来自蒙古、俄罗斯、...

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