穆迪:剔除技术性因素影响,美国第三季基础实质GDP增长约2%

格隆汇
Dec 24, 2025

12月24日,穆迪分析首席经济学家Mark Zandi表示,尽管第三季美国实质GDP增长大幅跳升4.3%,但若抽离季度数据本身的波动,基础的实质GDP增长其实更接近2%。他直言,(这个数据)还可以,但谈不上好,也不足以创造足够的就业,因为失业率正持续上升。Zandi原本预估第三季实质GDP将增长3.8%,高于多数经济学家预测的3.3%。

因此,他对实际数据并不感到意外,但也推测,这次大幅超越市场预期,可能更多来自技术性因素,而非真正的经济动能。他指出,与我预测差距最大的地方,在于贸易逆差更明显缩小,但这主要是关税导致的波动;政府支出也更强劲,但这很可能是统计上的衡量问题。

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责任编辑:栎树

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