Kalshi宣布推出Kalshi Research,首份研究报告称其通胀预测表现优于华尔街

Blockbeats
Dec 23, 2025

BlockBeats 消息,12 月 23 日,预测市场 Kalshi 宣布推出 Kalshi Research。Kalshi Research 将向研究人员开放 Kalshi 的内部数据,供其研究与预测市场相关的课题。首篇研究报告已发布:Kalshi 在通胀预测的表现上优于华尔街共识预期。

此前报道,该报告指出,Kalshi 通过对比其平台上的通胀预测与华尔街共识预期发现,基于市场的交易者在 25 个月的观察期内,预测准确性高于传统经济学家和分析师,这一优势在经济波动期间尤其显著。具体而言,研究发现在 2023 年 2 月至 2025 年年中,预测市场对消费者价格指数(CPI)同比变化的估计值,其平均误差比共识预测低 40%。当实际数据与预期出现较大偏离时,预测市场的优势更加突出,其准确度最高可超出共识预期 67%。

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