Tesla shareholders would like a Christmas gift: $500 per share for their electric-vehicle maker and AI technology company.
Shares got oh-so-close to that level on Monday, briefly hitting a new all-time high at $498.83. Tesla stock closed the day up 1.6% at $488.73, boosted in part by a power outage in San Francisco that left Waymo suspending its robo-taxi service out of an abundance of caution. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on X that Tesla's robo-taxis were unaffected.
Tesla stock was up 0.3% in Tuesday trading.
Tesla is testing robo-taxis in San Francisco with a safety monitor in the front passenger seat. Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June with a safety monitor in the front passenger seat. Waymo's fully autonomous robo-taxis currently operate in five cities: Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta.
Coming into Tuesday trading, Tesla stock was up 21% this year, boosted by a 25% jump over the past month, despite falling EV sales. Tesla is on pace to sell fewer than 1.7 million cars in 2025, according to FactSet, which would be the company's second consecutive annual decline.
Investors just aren't that concerned with EV sales these days, convinced that AI-trained robo-taxis, and eventually AI-trained humanoid robots, will usher in a new era of earnings growth.
Recent share gains have left Tesla stock trading for about 225 times estimated 2026 earnings.
On Monday, ARK Invest's Cathie Wood sold a handful of Tesla stock from the ARK Innovation ETF, ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF, and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. Those sales likely had nothing to do with valuation. Tesla is the largest position in all three funds, and recent gains likely led ARK managers to trim exposure to manage position size.
Wood's price target for Tesla stock, published in 2024, is $2,600 a share by 2029.
Before that happens, Tesla has to hit $500. That could come in the next few days. What will send it there is anyone's guess. Few could have predicted a Waymo robo-taxi outage, providing Tesla stock a short-term boost. It happened, though.
As for what will send Tesla shares higher yet, it's likely going to be robo-taxi-related. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes Tesla will launch a robo-taxi service in 30 cities in 2026, racing past Waymo. That would do it.
Ives is the biggest Tesla bull on Wall Street, rating shares Buy with a $600 price target for the stock.
Overall, there are more than a dozen price targets at $500 or greater for Tesla stock, according to FactSet. The average analyst price target is about $420 a share.
One of the $500-plus targets is from Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas. He hiked his target on Monday evening to $551 from $442.
The raise came despite Gianarikas cutting his fourth-quarter delivery estimate to 427,000 vehicles from 470,000 vehicles. Lower car sales don't bother him; he remains focused on Tesla's robo-taxi rollout. "Since the market is focused on the future, so are we," said the analyst.