金吾财讯 | 中邮证券研报指出，在2023年11月之后，黄金上行的节奏和一级交易商库存比例的波峰极其吻合，由于波峰是美国财政部发行长端美债带来的，也就是意味着相对于去揣测美联储的政策意图，关注美国财政部的季度再融资方案可能对黄金的买点更优参考价值。
在美债供给冲击下，买入长债随时可能因为下一次拍卖失败而下跌，并且也担心美国为了还债而稀释美元。对于长钱来说，美债不再是完美的“无风险压舱石”。当这笔必须要配置长久期资产的“巨额长钱”发现美债不可靠时，会发现黄金是世界上唯一的替代品。
展望未来，2026年黄金最大的机会或在2月，一是美国临时拨款法案可能在年初耗尽，届时两党博弈的结果终将指向提高国债规模，二是2月本身是美国财政部的传统发债高峰，二者叠加也就意味着长端美债的供给高峰可能出现在2月，黄金受刚性需求盘驱动的行情又有可能上演。
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