金吾财讯 | 海通国际发研报指，煤炭价格走势的核心驱动逻辑是供需格局。该机构认为当前煤价快速回落的空间已不大，本轮底部预计在680-700元/吨。从当前旺季供需看，需求处于近五年中值区间，港口库存近期已经有下降的趋势，但后续仍要关注天气，但下行空间不大(历史同期也是暖冬)；11月煤价回升至800元/吨以上，进口量仅环比微增5.9%至4400万吨，国内供给11月恢复到4.3亿吨，但同比依然有降。2025年1-5月抢装达到200GW光伏装机对于今冬是最后一波压力冲击，而6月136号文实施后起光伏装机断崖式下跌，预示2026年一季度新能源替代压力将下降。该机构认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，且该机构预计26H2开始煤炭及下游主要需求火电将步入新一轮的上行大周期，值得期待。
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