《汇市短评》英镑2026年将随英国央行降息步伐起伏

路透中文
Dec 23
《汇市短评》英镑2026年将随英国央行降息步伐起伏

路透12月23日 - 英国央行明年降息的次数可能会对英镑走势产生重大影响。2026年若降息25个基点三次或以上,可能会伤及英镑,而仅一次25个基点的降息则可能对英镑有利。如果像高盛预测的那样,明年在英国消费者物价指数$(CPI)$涨幅降至2%目标水平、且避免陷入衰退的有利背景下,英国央行将政策利率下调至 3%、甚至低于3%,其对英镑造成的潜在伤害将相对较轻。目前市场认为英国央行在4月30日前将政策利率下调至3.5%的几率约为75%,而在2026年11月之前将政策利率下调至3.25%的几率为56%。0#GBPIRPR自上周英国央行谨慎地将利率下调25个基点至3.75%以来,英镑已经走强,英镑/美元周二升至1.3517,为10月1日以来的最高水平。相关新闻 nL6N3XS0O1 nL6N3XP0KL

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(Robert Howard是路透的市场分析师。以上内容仅代表其个人观点) (完)

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