The restaurant sector is unlikely to trade as a single bloc in 2026. The winners are no longer the flashiest growth stories, but operators that can keep a tight grip on costs while convincing consumers that a meal out is still worth the money.

Restaurants remain under heavy cost pressure in 2025. Labor is still a major challenge, especially in California, where the fast-food minimum wage has risen to $20 an hour. Food inflation hasn't gone away either, and tariffs on imported goods have added to the strain. Beef prices in particular have surged, weighing on chains that rely heavily on burgers and steaks.

After years of raising menu prices to offset those costs, many restaurants are starting to feel the limits of what customers will tolerate. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows restaurant prices have climbed roughly 30% over the past five years, rising about five percentage points faster than grocery prices -- a gap that has pushed diners to rethink how often they eat out.

Fast-food chains have held up relatively well in 2025 as heavier promotions and value deals helped lure back some budget-conscious customers. McDonald's stock gained 9% year to date, Burger King parent Restaurant Brands International rose by 8%, KFC and Taco Bell owner Yum! Brands climbed 15%, while Domino's Pizza edged up 3%. Still, investors are concerned whether the discount-driven sales growth is sustainable.

Fast-casual restaurants have had a tougher time. After years of rapid expansion and strong same-store sales, chains like Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cava Group, Sweetgreen, and Shake Shack entered 2025 with rich valuations for continued growth. Instead, their shares fell sharply -- from Shake Shack's 34% to Sweetgreen's 79% -- as inflation and tighter household budgets finally caught up with their younger, middle-income customers.

As fast food and fast casual felt less affordable, casual dining started to look competitive again. Texas Roadhouse, Darden Restaurants, which runs Olive Garden, and Chili's owner Brinker International have been posting strong sales growth as more consumers treat sit-down meals as a "reasonable splurge." Brinker shares have gained 13% this year, while commodity inflation weighed on margins and stock performance at the other two. Darden shares are up 2% year to date, while Texas Roadhouse fell by 3%.

Looking ahead, 2026 is unlikely to bring a sudden rebound in discretionary spending. RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich expects labor inflation to remain in the low single digits next year, while commodity inflation -- especially for beef-heavy menus -- could reach the mid-single digits in the first half of the year. That leaves restaurants with limited room to absorb higher costs.

Some chains are turning to productivity gains to ease the pressure. Restaurants are investing in scheduling software to better match staffing levels to demand, kitchen technology that speeds up food preparation, and mobile ordering systems that reduce bottlenecks at the counter. These tools can improve efficiency, but the payoff won't be immediate. Operators first have to absorb the upfront cost of new systems before any savings show up.

In the meantime, they still face a choice between raising prices or accepting lower margins. Reich believes Taco Bell and Texas Roadhouse are better positioned to raise prices without losing customers. Fast-casual chains, by contrast, have less flexibility after aggressive discounting by fast-food and casual-dining rivals weakened their value perception.

Value will remain central in 2026, but constant promotions may not be the answer. Nearly 30% of restaurant visits over the past year were tied to a deal -- the highest level in at least 50 years -- according to data firm Circana. That level of discounting is likely to persist, but it risks training customers to wait for bargains.

In its 2026 restaurant outlook, Consumer Edge, a consumer data and analytics firm, argued that chains need to move beyond periodic deals and rebuild trust through fair pricing, consistent experiences, and quality food. The brands seeing real momentum are those that "treat value as part of their DNA, rather than a short-term promotion," the firm said.

Menus are also evolving to reflect changing preferences and tighter budgets. Demand for protein-heavy meals, influenced in part by the rise of GLP-1 drugs, is already shaping product development. Chipotle is rolling out a dedicated high-protein menu, while Starbucks has introduced protein-rich beverages, including high-protein cold foam options.

The National Restaurant Association's 2026 culinary forecast points to nostalgia, wellness, and affordability as key themes. "Comfort and value are the twin pillars shaping America's menus right now," said Chad Moutray, the group's chief economist. "Consumers are seeking meals that deliver joy and familiarity without breaking the bank."

For investors, the message is clear: restaurants that can balance affordability, operational discipline, and brand appeal are more likely to stand out in 2026. The rest may find that even loyal customers are becoming more selective about where -- and how often -- they spend on dining out.