Asia Week Ahead: Bank of Japan Highlights, Trade Data, and Inflation Reports

MT Newswires
Dec 29, 2025

The week ahead will be yet another period of subdued data releases as markets transition into the New Year's holidays before resuming pace in 2026.

Monday brings Bank of Japan's summary of opinions that observers will use to gauge where interest rates are headed next, alongside multiple indices from Singapore and Malaysia.

On Tuesday, investors will parse data from South Korea for clues on how its economy is faring after reaching a tariff deal with the U.S.

Midweek, focus shifts to China, where a couple of reports on manufacturing activity are due.

Most major markets will be closed on Thursday for the New Year's holiday.

The week wraps up Friday with a batch of PMI reports from S&P Global, as well as inflation data from Indonesia.

Here's what to watch in the week ahead.

MONDAY, Dec. 29

The week kicked off with the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions for its latest monetary policy meeting, giving markets an insight into the central bank's decision to raise its key short-term interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.

The widely expected move marked the central bank's second rate increase this year, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995.

The BoJ's board members signaled a clear intent to continue raising interest rates during their monetary policy meeting, judging that economic and price conditions justified a further reduction of monetary stimulus, the summary showed.

Singapore released its export and import price indices, as well as the produce price index report.

Singapore's Export Price Index fell 3.3% year on year in November, extending the 3.7% decrease in the preceding month. Meanwhile, the Import Price Index fell 1.2% year on year in November, extending the 2.4% slump in the preceding month.

The city's Manufactured Products Price Index rose 5% year over year in November, extending the 7.1% increase in the preceding month, while the Domestic Supply Price Index rose 2.2% in November, following a 3.1% increase in October.

Malaysia similarly released its PPI data for November. The country's producer price index fell 1.8% annually in November, faster than a 0.1% decline in October, the Department of Statistics Malaysia said.

Thailand released its November industrial production report, while Taiwan disclosed consumer confidence data for December.

Later Monday, Hong Kong releases its November trade figures. Trading Economics expects the city's trade deficit to widen to HK$43 billion from the HK$39.9 billion reported a month earlier.

Also due are India's industrial and manufacturing production figures for November.

TUESDAY, Dec. 30

A flurry of data from South Korea is expected.

The country releases retail sales and industrial production figures for November, as well as its business confidence report for December.

According to ING, events such as the November Sales Festa and an increase in foreign tourists are expected to support continued growth in retail sales during the month.

"Industrial production is likely to recover in November, as both semiconductors and automotives show significant improvement," ING added.

October retail sales data from Thailand will be due.

Macao releases November trade figures, with Trading Economics expecting the city's trade deficit to widen to 11 billion Macanese pataca from 9.9 billion Macanese pataca.

WEDNESDAY, Dec. 31

A number of purchasing managers' index reports will be due in China.

The official National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and general PMI reports for December will be released, while a private reading on manufacturing by RatingDog, the rebranded Caixin/S&P Global China PMI, will be due.

According to The Wall Street Journal, RatingDog's previous reading showed a contraction in factory activity during November and the latest report could offer observers signs on whether manufacturing was rebounding.

South Korea's December inflation data will be due the same day. Economists at ING expect inflation to slow to 2.2% year over year during the period from the 2.4% recorded in November.

"Inflation is expected to decelerate in December despite the recent weakness in the [Korean won]. Fresh food prices stabilized during the winter season while gasoline prices peaked in early December," ING said in a preview.

THURSDAY, Jan. 1

Most global markets will be off for the New Year's holiday.

The sole release scheduled for the day is balance of trade data from South Korea, with shipments of semiconductors and overall trade with the U.S. in focus, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The country's December trade surplus is expected to rise to $9.9 billion from the $9.74 billion recorded in November, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

Economists at ING expect December exports to have risen by 9% year-on-year following the US-Korea trade agreement that retroactively dropped tariffs on the country's shipments to 15% from Nov. 1.

FRIDAY, Jan. 2

The week rounds off with December inflation data from Indonesia. According to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics, the pace of price increase in Indonesia during December should slow to 2.60% year over year from the 2.72% recorded in November.

On the activity front, S&P Global will release manufacturing PMIs for Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India.

The Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management's manufacturing PMI report is due the same day.

Other releases include Hong Kong's retail sales growth figures for November, and Thailand's business confidence report for December.

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