保险股盘初向好 中国太保(02601)升3.18% 机构指银保转型叠加资负共振驱动新周期

金吾财讯
Dec 29, 2025

金吾财讯 | 保险股盘初向好,中国太保(02601)升3.18%,众安在线(06060)涨2.54%,中国人寿(02628)涨2.3%,中国平安(02318)涨2.27%,中国人民保险集团(01339)涨2.03%,中国财险(02328)涨1.57%,中国太平(00966)涨1.40%。

中信证券表示,港股保险今年表现随行就市,但基本面显著优于市场整体;且无论是在金融板块内还是红利资产框架下比较,轮动空间存在显著机遇。虽然港股保险相较A股今年已有明显超额收益,但无论是静态对比还是结合盈利能力回归,港股中资保险的估值修复仍大有可为,尤其在这轮修复行情中仍尚未充分计价盈利能力改善,继续提供港股中资保险表现的空间。周期视角来看,保险公司正步入资产负债表良性扩张阶段,政策端反内卷助力降本增效,产品端分红险转型降低经营压力,渠道端银保渠道推动储蓄存款持续转化,投资端增配权益提升市场定价权,保险股料将开启新一轮上行周期。

国泰海通研报指出,26年银行定存大量到期背景下,居民资产配置向储蓄型保险尤其是分红险迁移,险企普遍发力银保渠道,提升与国有大行合作,网点拓展空间仍然广阔,预计银保将成为26年价值增长的显著增量。此前保险板块处于系统性低估,主要由于市场担忧长端利率下行、负债成本抬升导致的盈利不确定性。随着利率阶段性企稳,叠加增配权益利好稳定投资收益率;负债端预定利率调整、分红险转型以及报行合一深化将推动行业负债成本的下移。资负共振下预计利差空间逐步走扩,看好保险股估值修复。

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