金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，12月以来OPEC+宣布维持26Q1产量目标不变，但美国原油产量持续攀升，叠加俄乌“和平计划”持续谈判中，12月中旬Brent油价一度跌破60美元/桶而后小幅反弹，12月25日WTI/Brent期货价格收于58.4/62.2美元/桶，较11月末下跌0.3%/1.5%。该机构认为美欧对俄制裁带来的风险溢价已基本消退，北半球需求淡季叠加OPEC+前期目标增量逐步释放，供需宽松局势下26Q1油价或仍有小幅下行空间，26Q2-Q3油价有望在需求进入旺季的带动下见底并上探，预计25/26年Brent均价为68/62美元/桶。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及“利重于量”诉求，油价中枢存60美元/桶底部支撑，具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将显现配置机遇。
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