【券商聚焦】华泰证券:白银承受的被动配售压力或强于黄金

金吾财讯
Dec 30, 2025

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,Bloomberg公布2026年BCOM目标权重,结构性调仓或放大短期金银技术性扰动。据Bloomberg,2026年BCOM贵金属板块目标权重仍将维持在18.84%的高位,黄金权重进一步上调至14.90%,白银权重下调至3.94%。但从指数运作机制出发,在此前金银价格持续上涨的背景下,贵金属在被动跟踪BCOM的资金中已处于明显超配状态,跟踪该指数的被动型基金将被迫在再平衡期间卖出黄金和白银期货头寸。因此2026年1月的指数再平衡,或使得金银贵金属面临技术性、规则驱动的减仓压力。从再平衡的影响趋势来看,白银承受的被动抛售压力较黄金更强。据Bloomberg,彭博商品指数(BCOM)的关联基金规模约为1088亿美元(截至10月30日)。依照11月28日Bloomberg公布的BCOM黄金权重19.40%,白银权重7.11%进行测算,如果调整至新目标权重,对应权重或下降4.50/3.17个百分点,对应卖盘分别为48.96/34.49亿美元,对应COMEX黄金/白银期货市场未平仓合约规模的2.2%/6.3%(截至12月26日数据)。考虑到白银期货市场容量与流动性显著低于黄金,其被动调仓规模占总未平仓合约比例明显更高,白银在再平衡窗口期内或面临更为集中的技术性抛售压力,而黄金则更多体现为温和的技术性回调。

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