智通财经APP获悉，铝业股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨5.3%，报13.32港元；南山铝业国际(02610)涨2.9%，报51.1港元；中国宏桥(01378)涨2.82%，报34.98港元。
消息面上，海外供应减少扰动担忧持续推升铝价，上周五外盘铝价再创新高，LME三月期铝价涨0.8%至3021美元/吨。新湖期货表示，短期市场仍受宏观情绪波动影响，投机氛围较浓，铝价或高位震荡。国金证券指出，展望2026年，预计成本下降红利将延续，中国产能天花板将至+电力制约带来供应端紧约束，低库存+需求多元有望超预期，看好电解铝高盈利继续扩张。
华闻期货认为 ，2025年1-11月份我国氧化铝累计产量为8190万吨，累计同比+7.44%，上半年成本压力下氧化铝企业一度出现集中减产现象，但随着成本下移及利润修复，下半年国内氧化铝行业运行产能重回高位。从新增产能来看，2026年国内外仍有大量氧化铝产能待释放，预计国内新增产能约1500万吨，主要在广西、河北两省，海外新增产能约750万吨，主要集中在印度。
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