Events in Venezuela could support emerging market currencies, traders say
Hungarian forint hit 22-month high in December
Polish and Romanian markets closed for public holiday
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint eased on Tuesday and the Czech crown held steady, while both currencies in sight of multi-year highs hit last month.
The U.S. dollar ticked lower for a second day against major peers on Tuesday as markets continued to process the implications of U.S. military action in Venezuela.
For emerging markets, traders said any bullish impact was offset by uncertainty.
"Markets view the events in Venezuela as positive, but it is important that we quickly see where things will go from here. Uncertainty does not help," a foreign exchange trader in Budapest said.
"As to the forint, nothing really changed... it trades in the 382.50-386 range depending on world events, interest or fresh data," the trader said.
By 0938 GMT, the forint EURHUF= had eased 0.3% to trade at 385.00 per euro.
Local markets in Poland and Romania were closed for a holiday, while stock indices in Prague .PX and Budapest .BUX gained.
IMPACT ON OIL SUPPLIES WILL TAKE TIME
All markets have turned their focus to prices of oil, after U.S. President Donald Trump said the country's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would allow accelerated development of the country's huge oil reserves.
The future prospect of more oil to add to an already well-supplied market left oil prices little-changed on Tuesday, although ultimately, cheaper oil could ease inflation.
The Hungarian currency has been sustained by an interest rate of 6.5%, which makes it attractive for carry trade transactions and propelled it to a 22-month high on December 3.
The Czech crown EURCZK= was unmoved on Tuesday, trading at 24.194 to the euro, off a 27-month high of 24.10 hit in December.
"We see room for further slight strengthening of the crown in 2026. Similar to last year, three important factors should play into its hands: a hawkish CNB, strong domestic macro fundamentals and the continued weakening of the US dollar," CSOB wrote in a note.
"We expect the exchange rate to be around 23.80 EUR/CZK by the end of next year," CSOB analysts added.
The Czech central bank paused an easing cycle after its last cut in May last year took the rate to 3.5%. Analysts expected attention to turn to local data this week as the market assesses the likelihood of a rate move this year. December inflation data is scheduled to be published on Wednesday.
On bond markets, the Czech finance ministry was expected to release 2025 budget data and its outlook for 2026 as a change in government raises the chance of some fiscal loosening. Czech fiscal deficits have fallen below the EU-mandated 3% of GDP ceiling since 2024 and the new government has said it would keep to EU rules.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1038 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 24.1940 | 24.1910 | -0.01% | -0.11% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 385.0000 | 383.9000 | -0.29% | -0.16% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2140 | 4.2110 | -0.07% | +0.04% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 5.0900 | 5.0894 | -0.01% | +0.08% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.2000 | 117.3000 | +0.09% | +0.09% |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Prague | .PX | 2736.60 | 2714.0600 | +0.83% | +1.90% |
Budapest | .BUX | 114423.67 | 113182.33 | +1.10% | +3.05% |
BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4030 | -0.0510 | +129bps | -4bps |
Czech Rep 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.8740 | -0.0500 | +143bps | -3bps |
Czech Rep 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.4240 | -0.0410 | +157bps | -2bps |
Poland 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 3.8700 | -0.0010 | +175bps | +1bps |
Poland 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.6060 | 0.0000 | +217bps | +2bps |
Poland 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.1810 | 0.0000 | +232bps | +2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | CZKFRA, PRIBOR= | 3.45 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.52 |
Poland | PLNFRA, WIBOR= | 3.56 | 3.37 | 3.33 | 3.95 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||
(Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; editing by Barbara Lewis)
((komuves.anita@thomsonreuters.com)(+36 70 795 8815))