Reassessing Constellation Brands (STZ) After A 34% One Year Share Price Slide

Simply Wall St.

Jan 08

If you are wondering whether Constellation Brands is starting to look interesting at its current price, this breakdown will help you frame what that valuation really means for you as a shareholder or ...

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These movements can change how the market is thinking about both risk and opportunity.\nRecent coverage...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","STZ":"星座品牌","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","CSTA.U":"Constellation Acquisition Corp I","BK4169":"酿酒商与葡萄酒商"},"translate_title":"Constellation Brands(STZ)股价一年下跌34%后重新评估","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"STZ":1,"CSTA.U":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Constellation Brands is starting to look interesting at its current price, this breakdown will help you frame what that valuation really means for you as a shareholder or potential buyer. The stock last closed at US$140.49, with returns of 1.8% over the past 7 days, a 1.1% decline over 30 days, a 0.5% decline year to date, and a 34.3% decline over the last year. These movements can change how the market is thinking about both risk and opportunity. Recent coverage around Constellation Brands has focused on broader sector sentiment and changing expectations for beverage companies, which often influences how investors treat share price moves like these. This context matters because it can affect whether the current price reflects company specific factors or wider market mood. On our framework, Constellation Brands scores 3 out of 6 on valuation checks. Next we will look at how different methods value the stock and then finish with a more holistic way to think about its valuation overall.  Find out why Constellation Brands's -34.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Constellation Brands Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today at an appropriate rate. It is essentially asking what all those future cash flows are worth in today’s dollars. For Constellation Brands, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $1.63b. Analyst based estimates feed into the nearer term projections, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further out, including a projected free cash flow of $2.48b in 2030 and a series of annual forecasts between 2026 and 2035. When all those projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$325.27 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$140.49, this implies a 56.8% discount. On this DCF framework, the shares screen as materially undervalued. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Constellation Brands is undervalued by 56.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 885 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows. STZ Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Constellation Brands. Approach 2: Constellation Brands Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like Constellation Brands, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about valuation because it links what you pay per share to the earnings that each share generates today. In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E ratio, while slower growth or higher risk usually justify a lower one. So a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on what investors expect for a business, its industry, and how stable its earnings appear. Constellation Brands currently trades on a P/E of 20.0x. This sits above the Beverage industry average of about 17.9x and also above the peer average of 18.4x. On the surface, that suggests the market is willing to pay a premium compared with many similar companies. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Constellation Brands is 21.0x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk profile. Because it adjusts for these company specific features, it can offer a more tailored view than a simple comparison with peers or the wider industry. With a Fair Ratio of 21.0x versus the current 20.0x, the shares screen as undervalued on this P/E framework. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:STZ P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1449 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Constellation Brands Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives to connect your own story about Constellation Brands with a financial forecast and a fair value. You can then compare that to the current price to decide whether it looks attractive or stretched. The model updates automatically when new news or earnings are released. You can see, for example, one Narrative that assumes the company ultimately supports a fair value around the higher analyst target of US$247.00, while another more cautious Narrative aligns closer to US$123.00. This gives you a clear sense of how different views on future revenue, earnings and margins map into very different fair values. Do you think there's more to the story for Constellation Brands? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:STZ 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}