2026年度基本金属策略:驭宏观之风 结构性浪潮中启航

天风证券
Jan 08

铜:供需缺口予向上方向,AI叙事+贸易扰动赋弹性。供给端矿端长期处于防御性资本开支阶段,全球铜矿的干扰率处在历史相对高位,初步预估2026年铜矿供应增速2%。冶炼端将面临历史极低TC/RCs水平,产能利用率或受限。观需求端,经济进一步修复的背景叠加AI热潮带来的设备落地需求,铜增速有望打开至3%,全球供需缺口约63万吨。关税仍悬而未决,非美地区库存不断往美国运输,导致非美地区更容易发生现货紧张、...

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