【券商聚焦】国泰海通:2026H1预计猪价延续低迷,行业延续低利润

金吾财讯
Jan 05

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指,生猪养殖:政策、周期双驱动,产能逻辑催化。1)价格:2026H1预计猪价延续低迷,行业延续低利润。2)产能:产能政策和周期调节,产能去化持续。3)负债降低,成本下降。关注成本改善、具备成长性的生猪养殖企业。禽养殖:白鸡供需静待修复,黄鸡需求或提升。1)白鸡产业链价格陷入深度低迷,供需回归平衡尚需时间。2)黄鸡价格或将小幅修复,关注中华土鸡推广活动对黄鸡消费的带动作用。牛养殖:养殖周期长,供给侧收缩推动价格上涨。1)肉牛养殖周期长,我国肉牛养殖格局分散,散户行为影响大。2)2022-2024年的价格低位推动去化,2025年起出栏量环比下降,价格有望持续景气。养殖后周期:饲料销量有望增长,龙头集中度提升。动保关注新品进展。1)2026年养殖存栏量仍然较高,行业景气度持续向上,其中2026年上半年企业饲料销量增速预期高于下半年。2)动保需求受养殖低利润影响,2026年动保景气度或承压,关注新品(如非洲猪瘟疫苗、宠物疫苗)进展。种植:粮价有望稳中向上,自主可控,关注创新。1)种子:种业振兴,品种创新。2)粮食:粮食安全重要性提升,粮价有望稳中向上。3)特色种植:关注蓝莓、菌菇等机会。4)植物提取:天然健康趋势推动植物提取产品需求持续增长。

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