金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，美东时间1月3日凌晨，美国突袭委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯，拘押总统马杜罗及其夫人，引发该国政局剧烈动荡。作为全球已探明石油储量第一的国家，委内瑞拉原油出口目前已基本暂停，短期内对全球市场构成供给扰动；叠加陆上储罐与海上浮仓库存持续累积，油田减产节奏或进一步加快。该机构认为，地缘政治风险或推动油价短期走高，但考虑到当前全球原油市场仍处于供给宽松格局，预计油价仍将在60~70美元/桶扰动。考虑到委内瑞拉石油短期供给缺口或在100万桶/天左右，预计短期油价将上行；建议关注油气生产企业，建议关注沥青、硫磺、石油焦的生产企业。
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