金吾财讯 | 中远海能(01138)股价上行，截至发稿，涨3.62%，报10.02港元，成交额7086万港元。消息面上，长江证券发研报指，委内瑞拉地缘风险升温，支撑油运淡季不淡。新华社报道，1 月3 日美国对委内瑞拉实施大规模打击，其国有石油公司PDVSA 设施并未出现明显战损，但原油出口已暂时“停摆”。2024 年，委内瑞拉原油出口预计为70 万桶/天，占全球原油出口1.8%，主要出口至中国和美国。短期看，委内瑞拉出口受阻或导致中美重油供应吃紧而寻找其他替代，增加中东国家和拉美国家的重质原油进口，合规油运需求增加。委内瑞拉地缘风险升温，支撑油运淡季不淡，推荐招商轮船、中远海能。长期看，委内瑞拉是典型的“高储量、低产量”的国家，其储量占全球19%，但产量仅占全球1.3%。特朗普表示要强势介入委内瑞拉的石油产业，有可能带来委内瑞拉至远东长航线原油需求增加，重塑贸易格局。
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