由于日本央行似乎不愿加快政策紧缩步伐，欧元兑日元势将上行，至于升幅将达到何种程度将是个未知数。

　　日本央行行长植田和男周一再次表示，计划继续提高基准利率，但这一论调之前已经多次出现。日本央行致力于呵护经济复苏的萌芽，经通胀调整的利率应该会维持在深度负值区域，这将对日元构成不利。

　　在欧元区，尽管从央行自己对中性利率的预期来看，还有进一步放松政策的空间，但市场现在相信欧洲央行将不需要这么做。欧洲央行对HICP和核心通胀率的上修，支持了交易员对该行不会进一步降息的预期，尤其是考虑到地区增长前景改善。

　　德国国债收益率上升也料将支撑欧元，鉴于德国今年创纪录的发行规模以及财政支出增加，该国较长期债券可能继续承压。欧元/日元上月一度触及185日元，之后回落近1%，但未来几个月可能会收复失地并再次刷新纪录高位。

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责任编辑：刘明亮

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