【券商聚焦】中金公司:随需求端边际改善 2026年纸浆价格中枢有望迎来修复

金吾财讯
Jan 09

金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指,2021年造纸牛市后利润分配向浆端倾斜,造纸产能出清呈现“长尾效应”。我们认为,造纸产业链目前呈现“资源端高度集中,加工端分散博弈”特征,纸浆作为稀缺禀赋资源品、掌握强定价权,而中游造纸受浆价高企与需求疲软挤压,利润空间持续收窄。由于单吨投资高昂且折旧压力大,行业在供大于求周期下的出清速度缓慢,规模效应难以转化为价格红利,盈利稳定性较大程度依赖成本端的有效传导 。战略范式由产能扩张转向产业链一体。我们认为,中国纸企已步入存量博弈成熟期,单纯靠资本开支驱动的增长难以为继,战略核心已转向利用自有纤维对冲金融属性强的浆价波动。这种一体化布局本质上是将不稳定的加工利润沉淀为确定的资源性溢价,使龙头企业从“全球资源搬运工”逐步向“价值整合者”转型,成为在周期底部维持ROE稳定的关键。太阳纸业则是在国内资源约束下,率先突破建立“林浆纸一体化”的代表。2026年短期木片供需缺口将现,看好木片、浆价中枢修复。短期来看,国内近年来大规模投产自制浆,但优质木片资源的配套建设周期远滞后于设备投产,我们预计2026年国内木片市场将出现阶段性供给缺口,原材料紧缺将推升成本重心;随需求端边际改善,2026年纸浆价格中枢有望迎来修复,具备全产业链自给能力的头部企业将继续演绎“加工制造”到“资源重估”溢价机会。

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