By Mackenzie Tatananni

Skeptics may argue that International Business Machines has lost the clout it had decades ago, but one analyst is doubling down on his bullish bet heading into the new year.

Much of the negative noise surrounding IBM appears to be unfounded, according to Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh, who has chosen IBM as one of his top picks for 2026. He rates the stock at Outperform with a target of $360 for the price.

Shares were 2.1% higher at $303.04 on Thursday as the Nasdaq Composite traded in the red. Singh's price target suggests the stock can rise another 19%.

Attitudes on the stock are indubitably mixed. Of 22 analysts polled by FactSet, 11 rate IBM at Buy, while seven rate it at Hold, and four at Sell. So why the vote of confidence?

"Bears have the estimates wrong, making expectations low into the print, " Singh said, referring to IBM's fourth-quarter earnings report due later this month. He believes IBM can deliver durable growth by consistently raising prices, and described its portfolio of software as "sticky," meaning clients repeatedly return to the products even though alternatives exist.

IBM has been winning bigger contracts because it has more products and services to offer, largely driven by acquisitions and the rollout of new mainframe computers. Last year, it paid $6.4 billion for HashiCorp, a provider of infrastructure and security tools, and has had early success integrating those offerings into its portfolio.

Taken together, these factors could boost overall revenue by 6% and software revenue by 9% in 2026, Singh said. His call for revenue growth is double the consensus forecast on Wall Street and nearly double the call for growth in software revenue.

"We believe IBM will positively surprise the bears on its earnings through the year, driving upside to the stock," Singh said.

That comes after a decent run in 2025, a year dominated by the conversation around artificial intelligence. Shares rose 35% last year, behind a 39% gain for AI heavyweight Nvidia but ahead of a 20% gain for the Nasdaq.

There already are signs 2026 will be a good year. Despite recent chatter, Oppenheimer's checks show little to no customer attrition, even as IBM passes along a 6% price hike to customers renewing enterprise license agreements.

And then there is IBM's consulting division, which has become a significant contributor to revenue. Singh and the Oppenheimer team see little evidence of a pullback on spending, although software is expected to continue to grow more rapidly

Software revenue is expected to achieve sustained, double-digit percentage growth as opposed to "low-single-digits" for IBM's consulting arm, Oppenheimer said.

Barron's wrote favorably on IBM for a different reason in December: the company's burgeoning quantum-computing division. Big Blue was an early entrant in the space, and aims to release a fault-tolerant quantum supercomputer by the end of the decade. That would be an industry first.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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January 08, 2026 14:15 ET (19:15 GMT)

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