A Look At Accent Group (ASX:AX1) Valuation After The Recent Share Price Drop And Recovery Speculation

Simply Wall St.

Jan 10

User interest in Accent Group (ASX:AX1) has intensified after a sharp share price drop, as investors weigh its footwear brands, private label growth and new Sports Direct stores alongside expectations...

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The 1 year total shareholder return of 58.34% and 5 year total shareholder return of 46.16% indicate that pressure...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7021":"服装零售","AX1.AU":"ACCENT GROUP LTD"},"translate_title":"近期股价下跌和复苏猜测后的Accent Group(ASX：AX1)估值一览","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AX1.AU":1.5},"content_text":"User interest in Accent Group (ASX:AX1) has intensified after a sharp share price drop, as investors weigh its footwear brands, private label growth and new Sports Direct stores alongside expectations for future interest rate cuts. See our latest analysis for Accent Group. That sharp reaction comes after a 3.83% 1 month share price return and a 28.84% 3 month share price decline. The 1 year total shareholder return of 58.34% and 5 year total shareholder return of 46.16% indicate that pressure has been building for some time rather than momentum, with investors reassessing Accent Group’s risk and recovery potential as its brand portfolio, private label push and new Sports Direct stores evolve. If you are comparing Accent Group with other footwear and apparel names, it can also be useful to widen the lens and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for companies where growth and insider conviction already line up. With Accent Group trading at A$0.95 after a steep 3 month share price decline, but alongside a higher analyst price target and indications of intrinsic discount, the key question is whether this represents a genuine opportunity or whether the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 21.8% Undervalued With Accent Group last closing at A$0.95 versus a most-followed fair value of A$1.21, the narrative frames the recent share price slide as potentially excessive, then ties that gap back to a specific earnings and margin roadmap.  Exclusive long-term distribution deals (e.g., Skechers extended to 2035, new agreements with Lacoste and Dickies) and growing vertical-owned brands presence (Nude Lucy, NiLS, etc.) should improve product differentiation, reinforce brand positioning, and underpin gross margin expansion.  Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what sits behind that A$1.21 fair value tag? The narrative leans on measured revenue growth, firmer margins and a future earnings multiple that is not out of step with peers. Curious how those moving parts combine into that valuation gap? In this narrative, Accent Group is valued using revenue and earnings projections out to around 2028, with a discount rate of 10.08% applied to those future cash flows and profits to bring them back to today. The story leans on mid single digit revenue growth, modestly higher profit margins and a future P/E multiple that is set below the current P/E for the Australian Specialty Retail industry, while still above Accent Group’s present earnings multiple. On those assumptions, the central fair value outcome is A$1.21 per share compared with the A$0.95 last close, which implies Accent Group is trading at a material discount to that narrative’s view of its long term cash generation and earnings power. Result: Fair Value of $1.21 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, those fair value arguments could be knocked off course if the planned Sports Direct rollout underperforms or if ongoing discounting keeps pressure on already tight margins. Find out about the key risks to this Accent Group narrative.  Build Your Own Accent Group Narrative If you are not fully on board with this storyline, or you would rather test the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh view in minutes, your way with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Accent Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Accent Group is on your radar, do not stop there. Widening your watchlist now can put you in front of the next opportunity before everyone else.  Target income first by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that might suit an investor who prioritises regular payouts. Spot potential value candidates by scanning these 879 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where prices and cash flows may not fully line up. Get ahead of sector shifts by checking out these 79 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks tied to digital assets and blockchain adoption.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}