Medlive Technology Co., Ltd. (HKG:2192) Shares Could Be 33% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Simply Wall St.

Jan 09

AdvertisementKey Insights Medlive Technology's estimated fair value is HK$8.08 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of HK$10.75 suggests Medlive Technology is potentially ...

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(HKG:2192) Shares Could Be 33% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>AdvertisementKey Insights Medlive Technology's estimated fair value is HK$8.08 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity   Current share price of HK$10.75 suggests Medlive Technology is potentially ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/healthcare/hkg-2192/medlive-technology-shares/news/medlive-technology-co-ltd-hkg2192-shares-could-be-33-above-t\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Medlive Technology Co., Ltd. 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(HKG:2192) Shares Could Be 33% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-09 08:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/healthcare/hkg-2192/medlive-technology-shares/news/medlive-technology-co-ltd-hkg2192-shares-could-be-33-above-t><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AdvertisementKey Insights Medlive Technology's estimated fair value is HK$8.08 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity   Current share price of HK$10.75 suggests Medlive Technology is potentially ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/healthcare/hkg-2192/medlive-technology-shares/news/medlive-technology-co-ltd-hkg2192-shares-could-be-33-above-t\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"02192","symbol_name":"医脉通","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/healthcare/hkg-2192/medlive-technology-shares/news/medlive-technology-co-ltd-hkg2192-shares-could-be-33-above-t","article_id":"2602724346","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/9551730-choice1-main-header/1585186828574"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/healthcare/hkg-2192/medlive-technology-shares/news/medlive-technology-co-ltd-hkg2192-shares-could-be-33-above-t","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602724346","pubTimestamp":1767920146,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Key Insights Medlive Technology's estimated fair value is HK$8.08 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"02192":"医脉通","BK4100":"有线和卫星","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","FCF":"第一联邦金融","BK4211":"区域性银行","LU1235295612.USD":"FIDELITY PACIFIC \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","TV":"墨西哥电视","LU0049112450.USD":"FIDELITY PACIFIC \"A\" INC","BK1587":"次新股","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","BK1189":"医疗保健技术"},"translate_title":"Medlive Technology Co., Ltd.(HKG：2192)股价可能比其内在价值估计高出33%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"FCF":1,"02192":1.5,"TV":1},"content_text":"AdvertisementKey Insights Medlive Technology's estimated fair value is HK$8.08 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity   Current share price of HK$10.75 suggests Medlive Technology is potentially 33% overvalued   Our fair value estimate is 51% lower than Medlive Technology's analyst price target of CN¥16.56   Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Medlive Technology Co., Ltd. (HKG:2192) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value.  This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model.  There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.  We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws.  For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. Is Medlive Technology Fairly Valued?   We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate.  To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows.   Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.   Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future,  so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:  10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate  2026202720282029203020312032203320342035 Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥174.0mCN¥224.0mCN¥260.9mCN¥293.1mCN¥320.9mCN¥345.0mCN¥366.0mCN¥384.7mCN¥401.8mCN¥417.6mGrowth Rate Estimate SourceAnalyst x1Analyst x1Est @ 16.45%Est @ 12.36%Est @ 9.50%Est @ 7.50%Est @ 6.09%Est @ 5.11%Est @ 4.42%Est @ 3.94% Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5% CN¥160CN¥190CN¥204CN¥212CN¥214CN¥212CN¥207CN¥201CN¥193CN¥185(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥2.0b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage.  The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.5%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥418m× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (8.5%– 2.8%) = CN¥7.6bPresent Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥7.6b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= CN¥3.4b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows,  which in this case is CN¥5.3b.  In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding.  Relative to the current share price of HK$10.8, the company appears   reasonably expensive    at the time of writing.   Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. SEHK:2192 Discounted Cash Flow January 9th 2026  The Assumptions  Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows.  Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions.  The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance.  Given that we are looking at Medlive Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt.  In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.078. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.   See our latest analysis for Medlive Technology SWOT Analysis for Medlive TechnologyStrength Currently debt free. Balance sheet summary for 2192. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Healthcare Services industry. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Healthcare Services market. Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Opportunity Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market. Threat Dividends are not covered by cash flow.  Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.  See 2192's dividend history.  Next Steps:  Although the valuation of a company is important, it  is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company.  It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model.  Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued.  For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result.   What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value?   For Medlive Technology, we've compiled three  essential  factors  you should look at:   Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Medlive Technology that you need to consider before investing here.  Future Earnings: How does 2192's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!   PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}