Arthur Hayes新文:预计特朗普将放水刺激经济备战中期选举,比特币将随美元流动性回升强势反弹

Blockbeats
Jan 15

BlockBeats 消息,1 月 15 日,Arthur Hayes 在最新撰文《Frowny Cloud》中表示:

“虽然涨幅不及黄金,但比特币 2025 年的表现其实完全符合预期,它做了它该做的事。

2025 年比特币表现烂,完全是流动性故事,它随着美元流动性一起下跌。而黄金和纳指之所以能逆势涨,是因为它们背后有更强的非流动性驱动因素(主权去美元化 + AI 准国有化)。但如果 2026 年美元流动性如预期大幅扩张(联储重启印钱 + 商业银行战略放贷 + 房地产再加杠杆),那么比特币该反弹的时候,会非常强势。

其目前的判断是:特朗普将猛推信用‘把经济搞得滚烫’。一个超级火热的经济有助于共和党在今年 11 月的连任选举,预计美元信用会通过以下方式扩张:

· 联储资产负债表再次膨胀(印钱)

· 商业银行向“战略产业”大放水

· 抵押贷款利率因为印钱而下降”

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