Assessing Steven Madden (SHOO) Valuation After Analyst Upgrade And Kurt Geiger Acquisition

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Jan 13

AdvertisementWhy Steven Madden (SHOO) Is Back On Analysts' Radar A recent upgrade to a buy rating for Steven Madden (SHOO), tied to expectations around fashion trends, margin recovery, and the Kurt ...

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See our latest analysis for Steven Madden. The analyst upgrade follows a strong run, with a 90 day share price return of 28.86% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 14.98%, suggesting momentum has been building rather than fading. If Steven Madden’s move has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to widen your watchlist and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Steven Madden trading at US$45.05 versus an average analyst target of about US$46.56, and one DCF estimate pointing to a much larger intrinsic discount, the key question is simple: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 1% Undervalued The most followed narrative pegs Steven Madden’s fair value at about US$45.50, almost exactly in line with the last close at US$45.05, which keeps the focus firmly on the earnings story behind that number.  Vertical integration efforts and ongoing supply chain diversification away from China (expecting U.S. imports sourced from China to drop from 71% to 30% YoY) provide a pathway to improve gross margin stability and working capital management, supporting future earnings recovery once tariff disruptions stabilize.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue growth, margin rebuild, and future P/E this narrative is banking on? The key assumptions are punchy, specific, and very different from where the business sits today. Result: Fair Value of $45.50 (ABOUT RIGHT) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are still real pressure points here, especially around tariffs and sourcing concentration, as well as the risk that elevated inventories force heavier markdowns and squeeze margins. Find out about the key risks to this Steven Madden narrative. Another Angle On Valuation The narrative fair value of about US$45.50 lines up closely with the current US$45.05 share price, but the earnings multiple tells a different story. Steven Madden trades on a P/E of 58.2x versus 21.2x for the US Luxury industry and 19.2x for peers, and even above an estimated fair ratio of 48.9x. That gap suggests the market is already paying a premium for future earnings. This raises a simple question for you: are you comfortable with that level of valuation risk if the recovery takes longer or comes in below expectations? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqGS:SHOO P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Steven Madden Narrative If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can create a custom Steven Madden view in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Steven Madden research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready For More Investment Ideas? SHOO might be on your screen today, but you do not want to miss other pockets of opportunity that could fit your goals just as well.  Target income-focused ideas with these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3% and see which businesses have income profiles that match your needs. Spot potential value candidates using these 883 undervalued stocks based on cash flows to see which companies look cheap based on cash flows before the crowd pays attention. Lean into future looking themes by checking out these 79 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks and assess which businesses are building real exposure to digital assets and blockchain.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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