Assessing Vital Farms (VITL) Valuation After Reduced 2025 Guidance And Mixed Analyst Target Resets

Simply Wall St.

Jan 15

Recent analyst reactions to Vital Farms (VITL) followed the company’s unexpected reduction in its 2025 revenue guidance, with several firms adjusting their views while still pointing to what they see ...

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The 1 year...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"VITL":"Vital Farms, Inc.","LU2308191902.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION \"CLASSIC\" (HKD) ACC","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类"},"translate_title":"在2025年指引下调和分析师目标重置混合后评估Vital Farms(VITL)估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"VITL":1.5},"content_text":"Recent analyst reactions to Vital Farms (VITL) followed the company’s unexpected reduction in its 2025 revenue guidance, with several firms adjusting their views while still pointing to what they see as resilient earnings fundamentals. See our latest analysis for Vital Farms. Vital Farms’ share price has eased back recently, with a 30 day share price return of 10.82% and a 90 day share price return of a 22.16% decline, even though the year to date share price return is still 2.58%. The 1 year total shareholder return of a 27.31% decline contrasts with a very large 3 year total shareholder return gain, suggesting longer term holders have seen strong gains even as momentum has cooled around the revised 2025 guidance and insider selling under a trading plan. If Vital Farms’ recent volatility has you looking around the consumer space, it could be a good time to scan other healthcare stocks that might suit your watchlist next. So with Vital Farms trading at US$30.59 and sitting at what looks like a large discount to the US$49.45 average analyst target and intrinsic value estimates, is the recent pullback a chance to buy in, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 38.1% Undervalued The most followed narrative compares Vital Farms’ fair value of US$49.45 to the last close at US$30.59, framing a sizeable valuation gap that hinges on strong growth and margin assumptions.  Significant expansion of farm and production network, including acceleration of CapEx to build out capacity (two production lines at the Seymour, Indiana facility and additional cold storage), positions Vital Farms to fully capitalize on unmet/pent-up demand, removing prior supply constraints and unlocking further revenue and earnings growth.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how that capacity build, double digit top line assumptions, and a richer profit margin profile are all baked into one fair value number? The narrative leans on a specific revenue path, a step up in earnings power, and a future valuation multiple that sits above the broader US Food sector. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts connect, the full story lays out every assumption. Result: Fair Value of $49.45 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, heavier discounting and the risk that expanded capacity outpaces demand could pressure margins and cash generation, which would challenge the optimistic growth assumptions behind this valuation. Find out about the key risks to this Vital Farms narrative. Another View: What The P/E Ratio Is Saying The fair value story leans on strong growth and margin assumptions, but the P/E ratio points in a different direction. At 22.6x earnings, Vital Farms trades above the US Food industry at 21.1x and above its own fair ratio of 20.1x, even though it sits well below a peer average of 81.1x. That mix suggests investors are already paying a premium compared with the sector, while the fair ratio hints the market could move toward a lower multiple over time. The question is whether Vital Farms’ future earnings justify staying on the higher side of that range, or if there is still some multiple risk left in the story. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqGM:VITL P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Vital Farms Narrative If you see the story differently, or simply prefer to work through the assumptions yourself, you can build and publish a personalised view in minutes by starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Vital Farms research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Ready For Your Next Investment Idea? If you stop with just one company, you could miss opportunities that suit your goals better. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to widen your options fast.  Spot potential value candidates early by hunting through these 884 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where prices and underlying cash flows can tell very different stories. Ride major tech shifts by scanning these 25 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence trends shaping how businesses operate. Target income focused ideas by filtering for these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that might help you build a more reliable cash return stream.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}