【券商聚焦】国泰海通:央行购金和黄金ETF持仓份额上升支撑金价 持续看好稀土作为关键战略资源的投资价值

金吾财讯
Jan 14

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通研报指出,委内瑞拉及中东地缘政治情况支撑黄金价格走势,美国失业率数据偏强。展望2026年,该机构认为央行购金和黄金ETF持仓份额的上升,将继续成为支撑黄金价格的重要因素。白银来看,伦敦白银租赁利率下降,库存上升,短期跟随黄金价格走势。铂由于美国关税预期有所走强。铜:美国12月就业数据虽喜忧参半,但仍体现美国经济的韧性,同时智利Mantoverde铜矿罢工持续,宏观预期向好叠加供给扰动下,铜价震荡偏强。展望后市,需关注特朗普对下任美联储主席提名的发酵对铜价的影响。矿端紧缺延续,需求端虽面临高价的影响,但较低的非美地区库存及美国“门罗主义”回归下的战略储备逻辑将放大价格向上弹性。铝:近期宏观预期偏强劲、流动性宽松与补涨行情共同推动铝价持续上行。基本面来看,供应端,日均产量随国内及印尼新投电解铝项目继续爬产有所提升;需求端,得益于中原地区环保管控在元旦后解除,铝板带箔开工明显回升,带动国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率微幅上升0.2个百分点至60.1%。稀土:在政策和春节前备库需求回暖的双重影响下,稀土价格回升,其中中重稀土价格涨幅更为明显。该机构持续看好稀土作为关键战略资源的投资价值。

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