Aristocrat Leisure's (ASX:ALL) interactive can deliver "material" earnings growth, but it is unlikely to be a short-term share price driver, Jefferies said in a Monday note.

The company faces slower-than-expected content growth, with a 15% market share not as fruitful as assumed, pushing returns on invested capital below the weighted average cost of capital until at least fiscal year 2030 despite long-term potential and margin upside from iLottery licenses.

Near-term content revenue estimates are too high, Jefferies said, and added it does not anticipate significant acceleration in growth until at least fiscal 2027, contrasting with the consensus estimate of 61% content revenue growth in fiscal 2026.

The company could achieve a market share of 10% to 15% in the medium term, but this may be less impactful than the consensus assumes, the investment advisory firm said.

Interactive has the potential to deliver earnings growth, but without stronger returns on capital or a significant contribution to group earnings growth, investor expectations may need to be tempered, especially in the short term.

Jefferies reaffirmed its buy rating and AU$71 price target on Aristocrat Leisure.