金吾财讯 | 国泰海通指出，近几年餐饮弱复苏下，餐供行业整体需求相对承压，份额诉求下的竞争有所加剧。但当下价格竞争带来的边际效益已经显著递减，龙头公司也纷纷传递理性竞争观点，板块25Q3的利润率触底反弹也证明了此点。进入25Q4及26年1月份的旺季，竞争延续趋缓，其中安井近期有对部分产品的促销政策进行适度回收。展望26年，板块格局能否显著好转的核心仍在于需求侧，需求端变化不大则磨底期延长，显著好转则有望明显优化。当下市场对于行业竞争趋缓已经具备较强共识，对于未来的分歧主要在于，一则需求能否好转，二则格局能否延续改善，三则新产品/新渠道/新市场的α能否带来持续的显著增量。该机构对此相对乐观，一则CPI持续回升，消费信心有望逐渐恢复，也期待更多内需刺激政策出台；二则低价促销带来的边际效益已经很小，理性竞争成为行业共识，龙头公司在新增量上已取得一定成绩，即使需求延续平淡，竞争再次加剧的可能性偏低；三则当下新产品/新渠道/新市场的周期不是一个季度就能走完的，有望延续全年甚至更久，短期26Q1旺季也值得期待。结合当下板块的估值水位仍然偏低，如果业绩有超预期兑现，有望迎来戴维斯双击。
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