特朗普释放美联储人事信号,比特币涨势遇扰,市场重新评估 2026 年降息预期

链捕手
Jan 17

ChainCatcher 消息,随着比特币价格在 2026 年初逼近 10 万美元,美国总统特朗普关于美联储主席人选的最新表态,被市场视为潜在的“价格转折点”。特朗普近日在白宫公开表示,尽管外界此前普遍预期白宫经济顾问 Kevin Hassett 将接替现任主席鲍威尔,但他“更倾向于让 Hassett 留在现有岗位”,称若调任将是“一个严重的顾虑”。相关表态迅速打压了市场对 Hassett 出任美联储主席的押注。

受此影响,预测市场 Polymarket 上 Hassett 的当选概率大幅下滑,而其主要竞争对手、前美联储理事 Kevin Warsh 的胜选概率升至接近 60%。市场分析指出,Hassett 被视为更偏鸽派的人选,若其出任美联储主席,可能更有利于 2026 年降息预期,从而支撑比特币和风险资产表现。相比之下,Warsh 立场相对偏鹰,意味着高利率环境可能维持更久,对加密资产构成短期压力。尽管 Warsh 曾投资加密公司,并担任机构级加密银行 Anchorage 的顾问,但分析人士认为,其货币政策取向不如 Hassett 宽松。Nansen 首席研究分析师 Aurelie Barthere 指出,Hassett“对加密市场的支持度原本更高”。

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