金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指，2025年原油运价中枢再创新高，全年业绩对应的VLCC TCE达5.1万美元，高于2023-24年的3.6万美元。自2025年8月，中东南美原油增产效应显现，且印度缩减俄油进口合规原油，驱动油轮产能利用率高企，油运运价中枢显著上升且运价弹性增大。过去一周，随着假期影响结束，中东与西非出现集中出货，且地缘局势加强船东乐观情绪，中东-中国航线VLCC TCE大幅飙升至11.6万美元。我们预计2026Q1油轮盈利将同比大增。重点提示油运不是短炒地缘局势，而是具有超级牛市长逻辑，我们看好全球原油增产继续驱动油运需求增长，油轮加速老龄化将保障合规运力供给刚性持续。
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