A Look At Stanmore Resources (ASX:SMR) Valuation After Record Output Strong Dividend And Upgraded 2025 Guidance

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Jan 18

Stanmore Resources (ASX:SMR) has been in focus after reporting record quarterly run of mine coal production of 5.3 million tonnes, a 14% lift in saleable output to 3.6 million tonnes, and a final ...

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The 1 year total shareholder return...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":["rate"],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7083":"煤与消费用燃料","BK4606":"AI电力股","BK4182":"重型电气设备","BK7129":"钢铁","SMR.AU":"STANMORE RESOURCES LTD"},"translate_title":"在创纪录的产量、强劲的股息和升级2025年指引后，看看Stanmore Resources(ASX：SMR)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SMR.AU":1.98},"content_text":"Stanmore Resources (ASX:SMR) has been in focus after reporting record quarterly run of mine coal production of 5.3 million tonnes, a 14% lift in saleable output to 3.6 million tonnes, and a final dividend that outpaced market expectations. See our latest analysis for Stanmore Resources. The recent production update and above expectation dividend have arrived alongside strong momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 26.58% and a 90 day return of 31.00%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 4.78% contrasts with a very large 5 year total shareholder return of 342.44%. This suggests that shorter term enthusiasm has picked up after a much longer period of gains. If Stanmore’s recent move has you watching resources more closely, it could be a good moment to widen your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With the shares up strongly over the last quarter, trading around A$3.00 and screening with a solid value score, the key question is whether Stanmore still looks undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 5% Overvalued With Stanmore Resources last closing at A$3.00 against a narrative fair value of A$2.87, the current price sits slightly above that estimate, which hinges on specific revenue, margin and earnings assumptions through to 2028.  The analysts have a consensus price target of A$2.699 for Stanmore Resources based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$3.35, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$2.2.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how modest revenue shifts, thinner margins and a high future earnings multiple still support this valuation? The narrative leans on detailed long term forecasts and a specific discount rate. Want to see which numbers do the heavy lifting here and how they tie back to production and pricing expectations? Result: Fair Value of A$2.87 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are still clear pressure points, including reliance on metallurgical coal pricing and concentrated Queensland operations, which remain exposed to adverse weather and regulatory setbacks. Find out about the key risks to this Stanmore Resources narrative. Another View: Multiples Tell a Different Story While the narrative model suggests Stanmore Resources is about 5% overvalued at A$3.00 versus a fair value of A$2.87, the preferred price-to-sales yardstick points in the other direction. The shares trade on a P/S of 0.9x, compared with a fair ratio of 8.4x, the Australian Metals and Mining industry at 144.1x, and a peer average of 3.2x. That kind of gap can signal mispricing or simply reflect the market’s view of coal, growth quality, and risk. The key question for you is whether this discount looks like caution that could persist or an opportunity if sentiment toward metallurgical coal improves. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. ASX:SMR P/S Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Stanmore Resources Narrative If you look at these numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Stanmore Resources research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? Once you have formed a view on Stanmore, do not stop there. Use the same disciplined approach to uncover other opportunities that fit your style.  Spot emerging opportunities early by reviewing these 3529 penny stocks with strong financials, which pair smaller market caps with stronger financial underpinnings. Target potential growth drivers in tech by scanning these 24 AI penny stocks, which sit at the intersection of artificial intelligence and listed equities. Focus on value-driven opportunities by checking these 873 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, which screen cheaply against their cash flow profiles.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}