特朗普一言“锁定”美联储主席人选,凯文・沃什获提名概率一骑绝尘

Blockbeats
Jan 16

BlockBeats 消息,1 月 17 日,今日特朗普在谈及白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特时表示,“想让他继续留任原职位,我们拭目以待。”这一发言暗示了特朗普心中的美联储主席候选人可能另有其人,市场对美联储主席人选的预期也从凯文・哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)和凯文・沃什(Kevin Warsh)两分天下变为沃什独自领先。值得注意的是,今日特朗普发言前哈塞特本人也对此有所表态,“沃什和 Rieder 也会是很棒的美联储主席”。或许哈塞特早已对特朗普的最终人选有所了解。

预测市场 Polymarket 数据显示,目前哈塞特获得主席提名的概率降至 15%,与美联储理事沃勒相当,而凯文・沃什获提名概率升至超 60%,目前已经成为最大提名热门,将其他候选人远远甩在身后。

与特朗普的亲密盟友“绝对鸽派”哈塞特相比,凯文・沃什立场更为鹰派,但市场预计沃什仍将支持降息,同时推进资产负债表缩减(QT)。沃什 2025 年早些时候提出“通胀是一种选择”的观点,认为通胀并非由供应链或地缘政治所致,而是源于美联储自身的政策决策。沃什极度看好美国经济前景,认为 AI 和去监管化将带来类似 1980 年代的生产力爆发。

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