Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) Valuation Check After Updated Sales Figures And 2026 Production Guidance

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Jan 22

AdvertisementQuarterly update: sales, production and guidance in focus Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK) has drawn fresh attention after reporting consolidated third quarter and half year sales and ...

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The company reported quarterly consolidated gold equivalent sales of 42,709 ounces and production of 43,663 ounces, alongside reaffirmed full year 2026 guidance of 160,000 to 175,000 gold equivalent ounces at an all in sustaining cost of A$2,600 to A$2,900 per ounce. See our latest analysis for Alkane Resources. At a share price of A$1.64, Alkane Resources has seen its 30 day share price return reach 30.16% and its 90 day share price return reach 53.27%, while its 1 year total shareholder return is very large at more than triple. This suggests momentum has been building over both shorter and longer periods as investors react to the recent production and guidance updates. If Alkane’s recent move has caught your eye, this could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With the share price already up sharply and trading only about 3% below one analyst price target, while some metrics suggest a larger intrinsic discount, is Alkane still undervalued or is the market already pricing in future growth? Price-to-earnings of 117.2x: Is it justified? On a last close of A$1.64, Alkane Resources is trading on a P/E of 117.2x, which screens as expensive compared with both its own estimated fair level and sector peers. The P/E ratio tells you how much investors are paying for each dollar of current earnings, which matters a lot for a producer like Alkane. A high P/E usually reflects expectations of stronger earnings ahead or temporarily depressed current profits, rather than comfort with today’s earnings power alone. For Alkane, the current P/E of 117.2x is well above the Australian Metals and Mining industry average of 25.9x. This suggests the market is pricing in a much steeper earnings path than for many peers. It is also higher than the estimated fair P/E ratio of 36.3x. This is a level the market could potentially move toward if earnings or sentiment shift, which would imply a lower valuation multiple than today. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Alkane Resources Result: Price-to-earnings of 117.2x (OVERVALUED) Alongside the P/E view, our DCF model points to a fair value estimate of A$2.39 per share, compared with the A$1.64 last close, which suggests the shares are trading below that cash flow based estimate. The DCF works by projecting Alkane’s future cash flows and discounting them back to today, using assumptions about growth, profitability and required returns to arrive at a present value per share. That approach can be particularly relevant for a resources company where earnings can be affected by one off items and near term profit swings. Longer term cash generation may look different to current reported profits. It offers another lens alongside multiples, especially when the current P/E is high and recent net profit margins of 5.5% are lower than last year’s 11.9%. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. However, you also have to weigh execution and sentiment risk, especially if earnings, project timing or gold prices shift and the current 117.2x P/E starts to look stretched. Find out about the key risks to this Alkane Resources narrative. Another way to look at value While the current 117.2x P/E points to an expensive share price, our DCF model presents a different perspective. It suggests that Alkane Resources is trading about 31.5% below its estimated future cash flow value of A$2.39 per share. This raises a simple question: which signal do you place more weight on, earnings or cash flows? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. ALK Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Alkane Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 881 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Alkane Resources Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to rely on your own research, you can build a personalised view of Alkane in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Alkane Resources research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Alkane is only one piece of your portfolio puzzle, now is the time to broaden your watchlist and let fresh ideas compete for your attention.  Spot potential bargains early by scanning these 3534 penny stocks with strong financials that already show stronger balance sheets and cleaner financials than many would expect at this price level. Ride long term technology shifts by zeroing in on these 23 AI penny stocks that stand at the intersection of data, automation and real world adoption. Put value at the centre of your process by filtering for these 881 undervalued stocks based on cash flows and see which companies currently trade at a discount to their cash flow potential.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}