Assessing GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) Valuation After Macquarie Downgrade And Fund Outflow Concerns

Simply Wall St.

Jan 24

Macquarie’s downgrade of GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) to neutral, alongside a 25% cut to its target price and concerns about ongoing fund outflows, has sharpened investor focus on the asset manager’s recent...

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See our latest analysis for GQG Partners. At a share price of A$1.57, GQG’s recent 1 month share price return of an 11.55% decline and year to date share price return of a 10.80% decline suggest momentum has cooled, even though the 3 year total shareholder return of 33.95% is still positive. If this kind of sentiment shift has you thinking about diversification, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other ideas where management has meaningful skin in the game. With GQG trading at A$1.57 and sitting at a sizeable discount to analyst targets, investors now have to decide whether recent underperformance and fund outflows are already reflected in the price or if the market remains cautious about future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 19.1% Undervalued According to the most followed narrative, GQG Partners’ fair value of A$1.94 sits above the last close at A$1.57, which frames the current discount and recent sentiment reset in a very different light.  From a quantitative perspective the company is highly impressive: a large, profitable, international funds manager with a growing client base and financial metrics that would stand out even in smaller, riskier enterprises. Growth prospects remain strong, particularly given Jain’s close connections with India, which could be one of the major growth stories of the coming decades.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how a funds manager on a recent share price slide still lands above its current price in this valuation? The narrative leans heavily on earnings power, resilient margins and an outlook that assumes continued expansion of funds under management. Want to see exactly how those ingredients combine into that A$1.94 figure and the return assumptions behind it? Result: Fair Value of A$1.94 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this view could be challenged if fund outflows persist or if controversies around significant holdings and their ethics begin to weigh more heavily on client confidence. Find out about the key risks to this GQG Partners narrative.  Build Your Own GQG Partners Narrative If you are not fully on board with this view or simply prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes. Start with Do it your way. A great starting point for your GQG Partners research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you only stop at GQG, you risk missing other opportunities that might suit your style, so put the Simply Wall St Screener to work for you.  Spot potential mispricings by scanning these 864 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may trade below what their cash flows suggest. Ride structural growth themes by checking out these 109 healthcare AI stocks focused on data driven medicine and automation in healthcare. Tap into digital asset trends by reviewing these 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks tied to blockchain infrastructure and payment networks.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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