A Look At Aristocrat Leisure’s Valuation As Its On‑Market Buy‑Back Continues

Simply Wall St.

Jan 24

AdvertisementWhy Aristocrat Leisure’s latest buy-back matters now Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) has drawn fresh attention after updating the market on its on-market share buy-back, confirming the ...

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This takes total shares bought back under the program to 11.63 million, a level that gives investors a concrete reference point for how actively the company is using excess capital to reduce its share count. See our latest analysis for Aristocrat Leisure. At a share price of A$57.46, Aristocrat Leisure’s recent buy-back comes during a period where the 90-day share price return shows an 11.16% decline. In contrast, the 3-year total shareholder return of 76.57% and 5-year total shareholder return of 99.31% point to a much stronger longer-run record, indicating that recent weakness differs from what longer-term holders have experienced. If you are reviewing Aristocrat’s recent buy-back and considering where else capital might work hard, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot other ideas. With the share price down 11.16% over 90 days, yet still supported by 3-year and 5-year total returns near or above 75%, combined with buybacks and an indicated discount to some valuation estimates, is this a genuine opportunity, or is the market already factoring in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 21.2% Undervalued With Aristocrat Leisure last closing at A$57.46 against a widely followed fair value estimate of A$72.95, the current buy-back sits against a narrative that sees meaningful upside if its assumptions play out.  The integration of NeoGames and the establishment of Aristocrat Interactive are expected to drive significant growth, with opportunities in iLottery and iGaming expanding market reach and potentially increasing revenue. The successful sale of Plarium and the strategic review of Big Fish Games may allow Aristocrat to focus more on its core gaming strengths, potentially enhancing future revenue growth and profit margins.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what earnings and margin profile needs to sit behind that higher fair value? The narrative leans on firmer profitability, disciplined capital use and a richer mix of digital revenue. The key consideration is how these moving parts stack up over the next few years. The full set of assumptions is where the story becomes more detailed. Result: Fair Value of A$72.95 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, you still need to weigh up risks such as earnings drag from the Plarium sale and any setback in NeoGames integration that could challenge margin optimism. Find out about the key risks to this Aristocrat Leisure narrative. Another View: What The P/E Ratio Is Telling You Our fair value work points to Aristocrat Leisure trading at a discount, yet its P/E of 29.8x is higher than the global Hospitality average of 21.1x and below peers at 32.3x, while the fair ratio is 35.1x. So is this a cushion or a warning sign if sentiment turns? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. ASX:ALL P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Aristocrat Leisure Narrative If you look at this and feel differently, or simply want to test your own view against the numbers, you can build a custom Aristocrat story in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Aristocrat Leisure. Looking for more investment ideas? If Aristocrat Leisure has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Widen your watchlist with a few targeted screens that can reveal very different types of opportunities.  Spot potential value setups by scanning these 864 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where prices and cash flow expectations may be out of sync. Target income-focused ideas by checking out these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that could complement a total return approach. Get ahead of emerging themes by reviewing these 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks, shaping listed exposure to digital assets and blockchain use cases.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}