Tiger Brokers

【券商聚焦】国泰海通：券商板块受益配置力量与业绩弹性共振，更看好优质头部及财富管理特色标的

金吾财讯
Jan 22

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指，预计交投活跃叠加基数效应下，上市券商业绩显著改善，归母净利润同比+46.4%。我们预计42家上市券商2025年调整后营业收入（营业收入-其他业务成本）同比提升34.1%至5657亿元，归母净利润同比提升46.4%至2164亿元，其中Q4单季利润473亿元，同比+8%/环比-27%。交投活跃推动市场成交额及两融余额高增，驱动零售业务高增，叠加自营业务修复，是券商业绩增长的主要支撑。从上市券商2025年各项业务收入对营收增量贡献度看，我们预计经纪及信用业务合计贡献50.4%，投资业务贡献45.5%。1）零售业务方面，全年日均股基成交额达20576亿元，同比提升70%，日均两融余额达20793万亿元，同比提升33%，我们预计经纪业务净收入、利息净收入分别同比增长49%、57%；2）自营业务方面，受益权益市场提振及债市相对平稳，预计自营收益率延续此前修复趋势，驱动全年自营收入增长；3）我们预计投行业务收入同比+12%，股权融资边际回暖提振投行业务盈利；4）预计资管业务规模同比小幅提升，带动资管收入同比+4%。券商板块受益配置力量与业绩弹性共振，更看好优质头部及财富管理特色标的。中长期资金入市带来的财富效应，将接续带动居民资金入场，叠加零售等业务驱动下券商业绩有望逐步释放，该机构继续看好配置力量（含居民资金入市）+业绩改善的双轮驱动的券商板块行情。

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